A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
